Back to blog home

How AI's confidence bubble affects decision-making

Written by Oliver Hughes

AI analyticsTransparency & auditability

Oliver Hughes explains how AI’s confidence bubble distorts decisions—and why visible, traceable reasoning helps teams verify claims and act with trust.

TL;DR

  • AI can build a rigorous-sounding case for almost anything. The risk now isn't fabrication, it's confident claims nobody checks.
  • A product director said this to me unprompted, and I've since heard the same thing, almost word for word, from a string of CEOs and COOs.
  • That overconfidence shows up hardest in slide decks and boardrooms, where nobody wants to be the one who raises doubts.
  • The fix isn't less AI. It's making the reasoning behind a claim as visible as the claim itself.

A conversation with... a product director

AI can build a confident, well-sourced-looking case for almost anything, and most organisations have no habit of checking the reasoning underneath before it lands in a decision. I've been talking to a product director at a mid-sized software company about exactly this, how it's actually showing up for people running teams day-to-day. I've heard the same thing, almost word for word, from CEOs and COOs at similar companies (and so have others), and this piece is the sum of all those conversations.

Their team is a fairly standard product org: a handful of product managers split across consumer and business customers. They used to run an analyst embedded directly in the team; now analytics works more like a shared service that PMs go to with questions, so a steady stream of ad hoc questions lands on one central team instead. Count's Slack agent has absorbed a lot of that traffic, letting people ask a question and get a trustworthy answer without waiting on someone to run it for them.